The Great Stay: Why Quits and Hiring Are Both Stuck in 2026

Employers added 29,000 jobs in September, the BLS reported on October 2. After revisions, the three-month average is about 51,000 a month. The unemployment rate sits at 4.2% and has stayed between 4.1% and 4.3% since March.

The turnover data is where it gets interesting. In the August JOLTS report, job openings were 7.1 million. The quits rate was 1.9%, tied for the lowest since June 2020. The hires rate was 3.3%.

For context, the Economic Policy Institute notes that the hires rate averaged 3.2% in 2010, a year when unemployment was 9.6%. So today we're hiring at roughly recession-era speed while unemployment looks healthy. That combination is unusual, and it changes the rules for everybody.

Quits are a confidence gauge. People quit when they believe they can find something better. A quits rate of 1.9% says workers are holding on to what they have.

Low quits also mean fewer job openings get created downstream. Every resignation usually creates a vacancy, which creates a hire, which creates another vacancy somewhere else. When the first domino doesn't fall, the whole chain stalls. That's the Great Stay in one sentence.

If you have a job, it's comfortable. Challenger, Gray & Christmas reports announced layoffs through September are down 39% from last year.

If you're looking, it's harder. The BLS counts 1.9 million long-term unemployed people (jobless 27 weeks or more), or 27.1% of everyone unemployed. When nobody leaves, there are fewer seats to fill.

If you're a small business, watch the details. In August, openings at firms with one to nine employees fell by 335,000 in a single month. Small employers are pulling back first.

If you're a recent grad, the entry-level door is narrower than usual, because companies with low turnover rarely need to backfill junior roles.

Your best candidates are employed and not looking. Low quits means people need a real reason to move, and "great culture" is not a reason; it's a sticker. Lead with the pay range, the actual schedule and why this role is better than the one they have.

Expect counteroffers. A comfortable employee with a raise on the table is the hardest person in America to recruit. Ask early: "If your manager offered you more money tomorrow, would you stay?" The answer saves everyone weeks.

Move fast when someone bites. Passive candidates lose interest quickly when a process drags. Two weeks of silence reads as rejection.

Low turnover is the cheapest time to build relationships with future hires, because you aren't backfilling in a panic. Keep a short list of people you'd hire tomorrow. Check in with them a couple of times a year. When the market loosens, and it will, you'll be first in line instead of first in a bidding war.

Our permanent placement team keeps passive candidates warm for exactly this reason.

Treat every open role as competitive, because it is. Apply early, because postings fill faster from the first batch of applicants. Follow up once, politely. Tailor the first three lines of your resume to the posting, since that's often all a busy recruiter reads.

If you've been out a while, consider contract work. It keeps your resume current, keeps your references fresh and gets you inside companies that aren't advertising openings yet.

What is a low-hire, low-fire job market?

It's a market where layoffs stay low but hiring is slow, so workers keep their jobs but job seekers find fewer openings and less movement.

What was the quits rate in August 2026?

1.9%, tied for the lowest since June 2020, according to the BLS JOLTS report.

How many people are long-term unemployed?

About 1.9 million people had been unemployed 27 weeks or more in September 2026, 27.1% of all unemployed people.

Start with open roles at Mintex. The dinner party does have a side door.