A $1 Trillion Season With Fewer Seasonal Workers. Do the Math.

Challenger, Gray & Christmas expects seasonal hiring to reach about 450,000 jobs in the fourth quarter, down 2.5% from last year. (Challenger and NRF measure things differently, which is why the numbers don't match. Both point the same direction.) Retail added 461,500 jobs in the fourth quarter of 2025, the smallest seasonal gain since 2008.

Andy Challenger described this year's approach as "restocking staffing plans surgically." Big retailers that used to announce huge seasonal hiring targets have gone quiet. They're leaning on automation, existing associates and on-demand labor pools instead of large waves of new hires. Compare that with 2020 and 2021, when seasonal hiring topped 900,000.

Translation: the companies with the deepest pockets are running lean on purpose. If you're a mid-sized retailer, distribution center or hotel, you're competing for the same flexible workers they're quietly tapping.

Hotels and hospitality. In the American Hotel and Lodging Association's 2026 survey, more than half of hotels said they were understaffed, even though 70% had raised wages. Holiday parties, family travel and New Year's Eve all land on the same overworked front desk and housekeeping teams.

Warehouses and logistics. Transportation and warehousing added 7,600 jobs in September, according to the BLS. Every online order needs someone to pick it, pack it and load it, and peak season compresses months of volume into a few weeks.

Customer service. Returns, shipping questions and "where's my package" calls spike from Black Friday through mid-January. Chatbots handle the easy ones. Humans get the angry ones.

When hiring feels hard, the reflex is overtime. Sometimes that's right. Often it's the expensive option wearing a convenient costume.

Here's an illustration. Picture a 40-person distribution team earning an average of 20 an hour. To absorb a 20% volume jump, each person works 8 extra hours a week, paid at a time and a half (30). Over six peak weeks, that's 1,920 overtime hours and $57,600 in overtime pay. That's before you count the errors, injuries and resignations that come from asking tired people to work tired.

Now compare that with adding 8 seasonal workers at 40 straight-time hours a week. Add your staffing partner's rate to their wages and put both scenarios side by side. You may find the difference smaller than expected, and your core team gets to sleep. Our hiring cost calculator does the comparison in a couple of minutes.

If your holiday assignments run into January, budget for New Jersey's new minimum wage. On January 1, 2027, the rate rises to $16.48 an hour for most employees, and the tipped cash wage rises to $6.61. Returns season, inventory counts and January sales all happen at the new rate. (We break down the full 2027 numbers in our post on the New Jersey minimum wage for 2027.)

And don't try to solve a holiday crunch by paying seasonal help on a 1099. New Jersey's ABC test regulations took effect October 1, and holiday associates doing your core work almost never pass. More on that in our post on New Jersey's ABC test rule.

Week of October 26: Forecast honestly. Pull last year's daily volume, add this year's sales projections and identify the exact days you'll be short. Most businesses don't need extra people for eight weeks. They need them for twelve specific days.

Week of November 2: Lock in your bench. Confirm seasonal headcount with your staffing partner now. The flexible worker pool gets thinner every week closer to Thanksgiving.

Week of November 9: Train before the rush. A seasonal worker who learns your scanner on Black Friday is a seasonal worker who slows down your whole line on Black Friday. Do onboarding and shadow shifts while things are calm.

Thanksgiving through December: Protect your core team. Give permanent staff predictable schedules and real breaks. Seasonal help exists so your best people are still around in February.

Late December into January: Plan the second peak. Returns, inventory and January sales create a smaller rush after the holidays. Decide in advance which seasonal workers you'll keep through mid-January.

Hiring late. The best seasonal workers commit early. By mid-November, you're choosing from whoever's left.

Skipping onboarding. "Just shadow Maria" is not a training plan, and Maria has her own job.

Treating seasonal workers as disposable. Good seasonal hires become next year's returning crew, referrals and sometimes permanent employees. Treat them like it.

Forgetting the January cliff. Releasing every seasonal worker on December 24 and then drowning in returns on December 26 is a classic.

Fewer announced seasonal jobs means competition for the openings that exist. Apply now, not in December. Be clear about your availability, including weekends and the days after Christmas. And treat a seasonal role like a three-month interview, because many employers do. Browse current openings or share your resume.

How many seasonal workers will retailers hire in 2026?

NRF expects 325,000 to 375,000 seasonal retail hires, roughly in line with last year. Challenger projects about 450,000 seasonal jobs across the fourth quarter, down 2.5%.

When should businesses start holiday hiring?

Late October to early November, before Thanksgiving demand thins the available pool.

Is overtime cheaper than hiring seasonal workers?

Not always. Over several peak weeks, time-and-a-half costs plus fatigue-related errors can exceed the cost of short-term staff.

Ready to staff the rush without burning out your team? Our hospitality, logistics and warehouse and customer service staffing teams in Edison, NJ can have screened seasonal workers ready before Black Friday. One client needed 25 vetted warehouse workers in a month and had them in three weeks. Talk to us about contract talent.